BA3300 Introduction to Business Statistics

Spreadsheet to estimate course grade:calcgrade.xlsThis sheet is for your convenience in deciding whether to take
the second
exam. Exam 2 covers a few more types of statistical tests than
exam
1, but the concepts are the same. If you are happy with the grade you
earned
on exam 1, you can skip exam 2 and I will just multiply the grade on
exam
1 times 2 in calculating the grade. Many people at this point have
solid
good grades, and it would be silly to go through the busy work of
taking
and grading another exam.
New link to outofclass FLASH videos video tutorialsVideos of Winter 2006 Centra online sessions can be played onlineThey were converted to FLASH videos with more convenient navigation than the original proprietary format.Here is a 580MB zip file of the online course videos which also include the outofclass videos. Download the zip file, unzip it and copy it to CD to make an autorunning CD. Operations videos aren't included in this collection because of CD size limitationsget those from the BA3320 or LOM5320 sites.In the future, upgraded versions of these will be available on CD through my classes or from instructionalvideotutorials.comPaper Syllabus from (online Course)Horizon Wimba Live classroom support documents at http://www.wimba.com/support/liveclassroom/docs.php Technical Support for liveclassroom at the UMSL help desk, (314) 5166034 The participants manual for version 4.3 is available. A course CD with all my videotutorials was distributed in the first introductory sessions. More videos with new versions of OFFICE will be made available at this website as the semester progresses. 
BA3300 Introduction to Business StatisticsCOURSE DESCRIPTION & OBJECTIVES:"This is a second course in a required twocourse statistics sequence. The first course (Math 105/1105 or its equivalent), covers the basics of probability and statistics, and BA3300 builds on that material. It is assumed that the student is acquainted with the material in Math 1105, and basic use of a PCCompatible computer, including navigating on the web, fundamental concepts of spreadsheets, and email. Students will learn techniques used for relational analysis and business forecasting and how to apply them in a business context. Tools include ChiSquare tests of statistical independence; analysis of variance; simple linear regression and correlation; multiple linear regression; and extrapolative techniques such as moving averages and exponential smoothing. Emphasis is placed on problem definition, construction of statistical models, analysis of data, and interpretation of results."Prerequisites:BA1800(103), Math 1105(105), familiarity with basic statistics and PCcompatible computers, spreadsheets, email, and use of the internet. Minimum 2.0 Campus GPA. These prerequisites are not waived.Required:

Fall, 2007  Online Session Robert J. "Bud" Banis, Ph.D.,C.M.A.
Administrative issues:Historical Grade Distributions"The Rules" on things like attendance, drop dates, academic dishonesty, and the like. Rules on cheating are enforced. See the discussion at collegecheating.com
To help make a decision about whether to take the second exam. MC exams are closed book, one page (2sides) notes, multiple
choice
and short answer.


Resources:Review spreadsheet formula design from BA 1800Resources and Statistics video tutorialsVideos and other course materials on course CDs and DVD This is different from the CD's that came with the book.Excellent EXCEL Videotutorials from DataPigTechnologies Is EXCEL an adequate statistics package?http://www.practicalstats.com/Pages/excelstats.htmlhttp://www.cmis.csiro.au/Mary.Barnes/PDF/Statistical%20flaws%20in%20Excel_Woody.pdf http://www.stat.unimuenchen.de/~knuesel/elv/accuracy.html http://www.stat.unimuenchen.de/~knuesel/elv/excelxp.pdf computer
labs
Some interesting statistics questions to research Interesting links on controversial statistics issues in the news:Global warmingThis is a fascinating and hotly argued issue that provides some stimulating examples of poor statistical reasoning.The base issue appears to be relationship between atmospheric CO_{2} concentrations and climate change. Correlation is not causality, and a look at the data allows strong questioning of the supposed "causal relationship" of CO_{2} to climate change. CO2 science The petition project and Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Response to
skeptics
by advocates of AGHG modelsthis site purports to refute the skeptics,
but much of the refutation appears to be namecalling and the
discussions
reinforce skepticism if you look at the datasee, for example, the
discussion
about correlation and causality for CO_{2} and temperature
change:
"There
is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming"
If you want to read more about this, just google united nations carbon tax. Fascinating. CPI CalculationsIs the CPI an accurate estimate of inflation?Interpretations of Statistical terminology 
Tutors for the Fall Session.Guodong: email address is gzq35 @ umsl.edu Monday 122pm and 45pm Thursday 10:5012:50pm and 45pm Vicki:
Tuesday 10:3012:30pm and 3:304:30 Wednesday 11:301:30pm and 3:304:30 
Approximate timing 
in process:  
Weeks 14

Overview, review of Z and t distributions, hypothesis testing. The Central Limit Theorem. One sample ttest.Review of Netscape Navigator/MS Internet Explorer, Windows Explorer and EXCEL Editing, converting and cleaning up real dataDescriptive Statistics, Graphing, ttests. Comparing two sample means.Normsdist function: Be the "Martha Stewart" of Statistics make your own Z score Table. The "Martha Stewart" table of critical t's (and a more complex version of ttail probabilities)
Hypothesis testing and sample means h0test.pdfCaution in the interpretation of hypothesis test!Comparison of sample variances through F tests, comparison of
sample
means, controlled experiments, Ch 9

Variance and Standard Deviation:Ch 6 Describing data measures of central tendency dispers.xls : dispersity Areas under the normal curve the Z score table . Applications to normallized scoresthe IQ Score examplesCentral Limit TheoremSampling Statistics and confidence limits on estimates of parameters. Ch 7 Sampling from Airplane empty seats data airseats.htmvideo samplek.avi Results show Central Limit Theorem on distribution of sample means. Joint probabilities and probabilities of multiple errors in the sampling experiment. Normal approximation to binomial distribution. Evidence for carcinogenicity of Dioxin. Hypothesis testing and sample meansExample onesample ttest: Is hospital length of stay < 5 days?video on 1sample ttest Beta error & sample size losbeta.xls Ttest two sample means:gender and height data from classvideo on 2sample ttest height data 2 sample t test completed paired Sample T test:Example on salary related to gender: Power of controlling other variables through Paired comparisonsVideo on paired ttest Male & Female Salaries are they significantly different? Results with interpretation: sexsalt.xls Application of confidence intervals when data consists of population proportions Drug Use Survey 


Ch 13 Analysis of VarianceConcepts of ANOVA , "explaining variance" Where does it come from and how can you mathematically separate out the sources of variation?Ho: all means are the same Ha: at least two differ from each other. If Ho is rejected, Which ones are different from which? Least Significant Difference (LSD) good discussion at http://helios.bto.ed.ac.uk/bto/statistics/tress6.html basically, LSD= t(alpha,dferror)*sqrt((2*MSE)/n) also see the Multiple Range test with a studentized range. EXCEL model
showing partition
of Variance by averaging out different effects. Be sure
to
set Tools >Macro >security at "medium" and enable the
macros
so the drop down list works.

Concepts of ANOVA genderheight
data from F01 correcting
for other effects.
Golf balls and clubs data cxa15_06.prn Video with sound 1Factor ANOVA 2Factor ANOVA with Replication Screen captures of golf club example if you want to see how means could be adjusted to arithmetically to do what is done in ANOVA, canceling the treatment effects. golfadj1.jpg and golfadjf.jpg , showing formulas 2wayanov.xls completed comparisons showing "manual" calculations golf9.xls More Discussion 

Ch 14 & 15 Regression Simple Correlation And Linear Regression (pdf regression overview)See the Varsorc modelabout detecting effects in the presence of other factors Regression least squares fit equations and EXCEL equivalent functions 
Ch 14 & 15 Regression Is crime related to level of gambling activity? Quadratic models Electricity Usage and size of house, kwhuse.xls , results kwhuse9.xls Learning Curves, assembly.dat results 9 am how does this relate to learning curve theory? data for paste special/ transpose. Interaction example from bookthe clock auction. 

Weeks912

Processing larger datasets
(YRBSS data Weight Multiple Regression Exercise 4Due Thursday November 8before midnight we'll walk through the actual exercise together in class each person with their own individualized data) to complete a larger dataset Multiple regression with about 14,000 records, studying the age, gender, height effects on weight of highschool students from The Youth Risky Behavior Surveillance System (YRBS) Direct link to data page Click here for detail on the assignment. See the Multiple Regression Video for explicit details See the screen captures on
parsing
the 2003 data into EXCEL.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Chisquared analysis for independenceCrosstabulation of variables can most simply be done by pivot tables in EXCEL. See the videos and an example sheet on the YRBS2001 data.We will use pivot tables in EXCEL to generate the data we need from YRBS2003 for chi2 analysisWe will walk through this together in class. Exercise 5 Pot vs SadnessSee the screen captures on parsing the 2003 data into EXCEL.Use the 2003 data for this exercise.
due Thursday November 15before
midnightMarijuana
use (amount in the last 30 days) And depression (debilitating
sadness).
Exercise 6: Simpson's Paradox and the UC Berkely Graduate Admissions CaseDue Thursday November 29before midnightDescription and videosDiscussion:Say something about Pvalues for the aggregate and for each of the departments, and also to comment on what the mechanism is that gives these paradoxical results. The mechanism discussion needn't be highly mathematical or technical, but rather conceptual, and what it means in real world terms.You can take a look at some of the references to better understand this, if necessary. 
Rainy days
Ch 12. Categorical Analysis Chi Square tests of independence drinking and smoking. Spreadsheet formulas: smkdrkfo.jpg There are, of course, several ways to approach the calculation of the table of expected values. Another approach used in class F02 is shown in smkdrkf2.jpg Copying text out of a PDF: pdftxt.html



Time series and forecasting. PPt summary and tools in EXCELStock Market information:
Exercise 7  will not be done. 
Time series and Forecastingpowerpoint from the bookSeasonal data on KWH use Timseasn.xls
Think for yourself.How bad is unemployment right now? See historical and current unemployment statistics from the Current Population Survey Statistics . Here is data converted to EXCEL, unemp.xlsDid the economy take a dive after 9/11 or was the dip
something that
started even before the current administration came into office?

Application reports:The final project is worth 10% of the grade and will be used to determine grades if you are on a borderline.The final project is due as hardcopy and a full EXCEL file before the exam on December 10. If you aren't taking the second exam, drop it at my mailbox in SSB 230. To avoid problems with large files corruption in mygateway, there's no dropbox. Instead, turn in the full EXCEL file with data and calculations intact either on CD ROM or on a USB flashdrive. USB flashdrives can be found at about $510 at places like Office Depot, Walmart, amazon.com, buy.com (free shipping) and such, so many people use them pretty much as we used to use floppy disks. If you aren't taking the second exam, drop it at my mailbox on SSB floor 2. If you submit the project by Friday, December 7, you can
try it by
email and I'll put a grade on it.
Refer to the 2005 Data Users Manual at the CDC
website
Download and parse the ASCII data into EXCEL from the YRBSS
2005
dataset. Here are screen captures and
description
of parsing.
There are literally millions of studies you could do. At this point you are probably doing original research that has never been explored by anybody else. Use graphs if appropriate to describe what you found. If you really have a hot project in mind, consider expanding it a little to make it presentable at the Undergraduate Research Symposium in 2008. 
The Multiple Choice Exam will be done
without computer
access, closed book, one page of notes allowed.
Use quizzes as a guide for the types of information to be covered but you'd better make sure you understand the information rather than just memorizing these questions! 
It's up to you whether you take the second exam. If you don't show on Monday, then I'll just double the grade on the first one. Be careful about being too optimistic about raising your grade, as it could go down as well!  
Liveclassroom course scheduleRef No /Section 
date/ Time  Place  
Onsite Intro  MW 5:306:45 Aug 2022  SSB216  
Online Classes  MW 5:306:45  mygateway/communications/Liveclassroom  
Exam1 MC  wed October 10, 5:306:45  SSB 216  
Exam2 MC  Monday, dec 10 5:307:30  SSB 216
Exam 2 covers a few more types of statistical tests than exam 1, but the concepts are the same. If you are happy with the grade you earned on exam 1, you can skip exam 2 and I will just multiply the grade on exam 1 times 2 in calculating the grade. Many people at this point have solid good grades, and it would be silly to go through the busy work of taking and grading another exam. 

Switching sections is not allowed unless there is a good reason and prior permission. Taking an exam at a later time than prescribed may result in a grade penalty. Doing so without permission may result in a zero grade for the exam.
last modified August 24,2009
comments
or questions to bud_banis (at) umsl.edu